A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Thursday, October 1, 2015

Morning Report - Slew of economic data this morning

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1912.8 4.1 0.21%
Eurostoxx Index 3097.1 -3.5 -0.11%
Oil (WTI) 46.64 1.6 3.44%
LIBOR 0.326 -0.001 -0.34%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 96.25 -0.102 -0.11%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.03% -0.01%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.7 0.0
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 104.5 0.0
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.84

Stocks are higher after yesterday's rally. Given that yesterday was the end of a pretty lousy month (and quarter) it looked like people gunned the market a little to make their quarterly returns look a little better. Bond yields continue to grind lower.

The next two days are going to have a lot of economic data. 

The ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 50.2 in September from 51.1 in August. 7 industries reported expansion, while 11 reported contraction. The slowdown in China and the strong US dollar are weighing on business confidence. A 50.2 reading would correspond to about a 2.2% GDP growth rate. 

Construction spending rose 0.7% in August, which was better than the 0.5% Street estimate. Residential construction is up 1.3% for the month and 16% for the year. 

Initial Jobless Claims rose to 277k last week. We continue to bounce around the lows with this number. That said....

Jobless Claims may be increasing in the future, as Challenger and Gray announced job cuts increased 93%. This indicator combs the newswires for companies making announcements for job cuts. Something like 58,000 job cut announcements were made in September, with the 30,000 cuts at HP accounting for most of it. 

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index rose to 43 from 41.9 last week. 

Auto sales numbers are looking strong. Fiat Chrysler jeep sales are up 40%. Amazing what cheap gasoline can do. 




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