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Monday, February 9, 2015

Morning Report - more on the jobs report

Vital Statistics:


LastChangePercent
S&P Futures 2048.8-2.7-0.17%
Eurostoxx Index3386.7-22.2-0.65%
Oil (WTI)52.71.22.42%
LIBOR0.2550.0000.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY)93.980.4070.43%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield1.92%-0.03%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA103.50.1
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA1030.1
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage3.82

Markets are lower this morning on European weakness. Bonds and MBS are up.

This week is going to be relatively data-light, with retail sales being the highlight. 

Friday's jobs report was undeniably strong, but I would keep in mind one thing in the back of my mind: We are in a sort of a sweet spot, where lower energy prices are helping things along, but the big layoffs in the energy sector have yet to materialize. If energy prices stay here, producers will cut production and staff. Also, the Fed will start hiking rates in June and then all bets are off. 

Note that last week, Ginnie Mae TBAs underperformed Fannie Mae TBAs are rates shot up. I suspect this is still related to the new MI changes. The bottom line is that conforming pricing is getting more attractive relative to government pricing. 

The NY Times comments on the social engineering aspects of the housing market. Note that one of Bill Clinton's first acts was to prod Fan and Fred into increasing the homeownership percentage. That percentage is now back to 1994 levels more or less. Mel Watt is trying to push it up again, but really has limited tools given that he has to explicitly protect taxpayers and there is still not much of a private mortgage market. 


Never one to ignore technical progress, NAR is urging Congress to allow people to use drones to market homes...

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