A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Monday, September 22, 2014

Morning Report - Cash real estate transactions lowest since December 2009

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1997.0 -6.8 -0.34%
Eurostoxx Index 3266.5 -6.8 -0.21%
Oil (WTI) 92.14 -0.3 -0.29%
LIBOR 0.233 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 84.67 -0.063 -0.07%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.56% -0.01%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 105.9 0.1
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 105.2 0.1
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.23

Markets are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up.

Merger Monday continues apace, with a few big deals - Merck Kga is buying chemical giant Sigma-Aldrich, and Siemens agreed to buy Dresser-Rand. 

Existing Home Sales came in at 5.05 million units, according to NAR. This is a 5.3% drop year-over-year. The median house price increased to $219,800 which is up 4.8%. All cash sales dropped to 23% of all transactions in August and represents the lowest share since December 2009. So, there is at least some good news for mortgage bankers. It looks like investors are stepping away from the market, which should pave the way for the first time homebuyer, who has been shut out due to bidding wars and the advantages of a cash buyer. 

The Alibaba IPO went swimmingly, with $25 billion worth of stock being sold and the stock trading up 38% on the first day. The company now sports a valuation of $231 billion, which puts it in the same territory as JP Morgan and Chevron. Note that Chevron throws off about 10 times the EBITDA that BABA does. 

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index slipped in August to -.21, We saw from the industrial production data that the auto sector had a huge July followed by a weak August. 

Kansas' state unemployment rate came in at 4.9%, well below the national average. For those who haven't been following closely, Kansas has been quite the ideological football lately. The left has been assiduously trying to paint Kansas's tax cut package as a dismal failure. Of course the idea was to attract companies to relocate to Kansas and that won't happen overnight. Needless to say, there is an election coming up, and control of the Senate may hinge on Kansas

We all know the housing sector continues to punch below its weight. One reason is student loan debt, which has the effect of depressing home sales by 8%, according to a new paper. That equates to about $83 billion in lost activity. We have discussed before the misconceptions regarding how to qualify for a mortgage. Separately, FHA loans fell 19% compared to a year ago as bankers pull away following an avalanche of lawsuits and buybacks. In fact, JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon said on his second quarter earnings conference call that the bank is wondering whether to be in the FHA business at all. Housing advocates are pushing for more low-income lending and are vexed that the banks are making less loans. now. 

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