A place where economics, financial markets, and real estate intersect.

Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Morning Report - Bay Area House Prices eclipse bubble highs

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1758.0 -5.0 -0.28%
Eurostoxx Index 3032.3 -28.9 -0.94%
Oil (WTI) 94.33 -0.3 -0.31%
LIBOR 0.238 0.000 -0.17%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.59 0.032 0.04%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.62% 0.02%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 106.3 0.3
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 105.2 -0.1
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.22

Markets are lower this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down. Later this morning, we will get the ISM non-manufacturing survey and the IBD / TIPP economic optimism report.

SAC Capital and the government reached a deal yesterday - Cohen's SAC Capital and the government settled insider trading charges for $1.2 billion. Cohen personally was never criminally charged. While Steve Cohen avoids jail, the firm will no longer be able to manage money, and once the client funds are withdrawn, no one on the Street will deal with him anymore. So, he can take his billions and go to the beach, I guess. The ultimate arbitrage - Cohen won this game.

The FHFA banned fees on forced placed insurance yesterday. Ultimately this move will result in a little less revenue for servicers.

Did FHA hike premiums just a little too much? It appears so. Wells, Bank of America and TD Bank are now offering loans with as low as a 5% down payment, with a requirement to have PMI until the house has 20% equity (this was the big thing FHA changed - now PMI has to exist for the life of the loan, regardless of the equity). In other words, Wells, B of A, and TD are offering a product similar to old FHA loans. Rising house prices make these worth the gamble. The government has been saying it wants to crowd in private capital; perhaps this is an intended consequence.

The CFPB will hold a hearing in Boston on Wednesday, November 20th at 11:00 am. Richard Cordray will be speaking as well as representatives from consumer groups, industry and the public. These hearings are usually used to announce new initiatives, and we may get the TILA-RESPA integrated disclosures final rule.

What is driving the growth of home prices in the Bay Area? Chinese money. Bay Area house prices are at all time highs, yes, even higher than the bubble years. Roughly 7% higher.


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