Morning Report: Incomes up, spending flat

Vital Statistics:

	Last	Change
S&P Futures	2150.0	1.0
Eurostoxx Index	340.9	-2.0
Oil (WTI)	47.9	0.0
US dollar index	86.6	0.4
10 Year Govt Bond Yield	1.55%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA	103.3
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA	104.2
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage	3.47

Stocks are lower this morning as the markets fret about Deutsche Bank. Bonds and MBS are up on the risk-off trade.

Deutsche Bank, which is being fined by the US government for $14 billion is starting to see some hedge fund clients back away from it. While it probably doesn't really pose any systemic risk (the US government isn't about to bankrupt German's biggest bank) it will cause a flight to safety, which will push down Treasury yields. If this snowballs, look for more easing out of the ECB, and potentially another excuse for the Fed to stand pat. 

Personal Incomes rose 0.2% last month while personal spending was flat. The core personal consumption expenditure index (the Fed's preferred inflation measure) rose 1.7% YOY, which is below the Fed's 2% inflation target. Larry Summers says income inequality is depressing spending by about 3%. 

The Chicago Purchasing Manager Index rose in September. 

Consumer confidence improved in September.

Janet Yellen mused about the Fed buying corporate bonds and stocks in order to respond to a downturn after they have hoovered up all the government debt out there. 

Seriously delinquent loans fell to 1.24% in August, the lowest level since April 2008. Pre-crisis it was below 1%. 

Morning Report: Pending home sales fall on low inventory

Vital Statistics:

	Last	Change
S&P Futures	2159.0	-4.0
Eurostoxx Index	344.3	2.0
Oil (WTI)	47.1	0.0
US dollar index	86.5	0.4
10 Year Govt Bond Yield	1.59%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA	103.3
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA	104.2
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage	3.47

Stocks are lower this morning as oil rallies. Bonds and MBS are down small.

Initial Jobless Claims came in at 254k, which is at a 43 year low. When you take into account population growth, that number is astounding. The last time jobless claims were around these levels, we had just ended the draft for the Vietnam War.

The third revision for Q2 GDP came in at 1.4%, which was an increase from the second estimate of 1.1%. Non-residential fixed investment and consumption drove the upward revision. The Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (the Fed's preferred measure of inflation) came in at 2%, spot on with their target. Gross Domestic Income fell 0.2%, which is a disappointment. 

Consumer Comfort ticked up last week, according to the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index.

Pending Home Sales dropped 2.4% in August, according to the NAR. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says suffering supply levels have taken the wind out of the momentum the housing market experienced earlier this year. "Contract activity slackened throughout the country in August except for in the Northeast, where higher inventory totals are giving home shoppers greater options and better success signing a contract," he said. "In most other areas, an increased number of prospective buyers appear to be either wavering at the steeper home prices pushed up by inventory shortages or disheartened by the competition for the miniscule number of affordable listings."

Immigrants are much more educated today than they were a couple of decades ago. That is creating issues in the housing market. Traditionally, low-skilled immigrants were builders of housing. Today many are arriving with college degrees, and therefore they are much more likely to be buyers of housing. This partially explains why inventory is tight and why it is hard to find skilled labor. 

Corporate profits fell 1.7% YOY in the second quarter. This is the third consecutive drop, which is a worrisome stat for the stock market, especially as the Fed begins to take away the punch bowl. 

Separately, are rising incomes helping to alleviate the problem of affordability? The drop in GDI didn't help. The ultimate issue will revolve around the long-term unemployed. Do they come back into the workforce or stay out? If they come back, wage inflation will be modest until that reservoir is used up. Ultimately that is better for the economy long-term. If they stay out, it will depress consumption and will probably start pushing up wages for those that do have jobs. Watch the quits rate on the JOLTS job openings. That will be the tell. 

Morning Report: The hot real estate markets are cooling off

Vital Statistics:

	Last	Change
S&P Futures	2153.5	1.0
Eurostoxx Index	343.1	3.0
Oil (WTI)	45.2	0.5
US dollar index	86.3	-0.2
10 Year Govt Bond Yield	1.56%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA	103.3
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA	104.2
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage	3.47

Stocks are flat this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are flat as well.

We have a lot of Fed-Speak today, with Neel Kashkari, Janet Yellen, and James Bullard speaking this morning. Charles Evans, Loretta Mester, and Esther George speak this afternoon. There is the possibility that some of them could say something market-moving so be careful with your locks. 

Mortgage Applications fell 0.7% last week as purchases rose 1% and refis fell 2%. 

Durable Goods orders were flat month-over-month and down 1.3% YOY. Ex-transportation, they fell on a MOM and YOY basis. Capital Goods orders (a proxy for business capital investment) is also down for the year, although it was up on a MOM basis. July's numbers were revised downward, so this report is nothing to write home about. 

Despite the gloom in the corporate sector, consumer confidence rose and is at post-crisis highs. This is probably being driven by the stronger labor market. We aren't seeing these numbers flow through to actual sales at the retailers though. The Back-To-School shopping season was a disappointment. 

The hottest real estate markets are beginning to cool off, as high prices and low inventory are putting off buyers. Many of these markets have long surpassed their bubble peaks and are hitting new highs. Given that incomes have not recovered, these price levels may be unsupportable, especially as the Fed hikes interest rates and mortgages become more expensive. 

The latest CoreLogic Market Pulse looks at some of the overvalued markets based on price to income ratios and price to rent ratios. Unsurprisingly, there are pockets of overvaluation in CA, NY, FL, and TX, while the Midwest remains undervalued. The chart is below:

The article also goes on to say that we aren't in a housing bubble. This is true, as bubbles are largely psychological phenomenons where investors and lenders consider an asset "special" and believe it can only go up in price. The last residential real estate bubble (aside from the mid 00s) was in the 1920s. Residential real estate bubbles are rare and I doubt any of us will see another on in the US in our lives. That said, we have residential real estate bubbles in lots of countries overseas (especially China, Norway, and Canada), which will be a damper on global growth when they burst. 

During the debates, Donald Trump went after the Fed, calling them "political" for not raising interest rates. Politicians have always jawboned the Fed, but this has to be the first time I have heard a politician complain that the Fed is keeping rates too low. Usually, politicians are calling for the Fed to not raise rates because they are worried about a recession. At least one economist thinks Janet Yellen would resign if Trump wins.

Morning Report: Home prices rise 5%

Vital Statistics:

	Last	Change
S&P Futures	2142.2	2.0
Eurostoxx Index	338.6	-1.0
Oil (WTI)	44.8	0.5
US dollar index	86.4	-0.2
10 Year Govt Bond Yield	1.56%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA	103.3
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA	104.2
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage	3.47

Markets are lower this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up small.

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton had their first debate last night. Early polls are showing Hillary won, however the debates went up against Monday Night Football, so the sample is going to skew female. Major media outlets are declaring the winner based on their ideological leanings: Bloomberg says Hillary won, and the WSJ says that Trump won. Did the debate change anyone's vote? We'll see, but my suspicion is that people's minds are more or less made up at this point. 

Global bonds have been rallying, but the US 10 year hasn't been following suit. The German Bund is now back at -15 basis points. Meanwhile, Blackrock is advising caution in Treasuries as the Fed starts hiking rates. Global central banks are selling Treasuries, which is putting pressure on yields. 

Tim Duy says December is a good bet for another tightening, but next year's voting members will skew more dovish than the current FOMC.

Home prices were flat month-over-month and are up 5% for the year, according to the Case-Shiller home price index. The real estate indices are beginning to show a slowdown in home price appreciation. Until we start seeing wage inflation, real estate prices will be stretched versus incomes. The labor market continues to send mixed signals. 

Morning Report: New Home sales fall

Vital Statistics:

	Last	Change
S&P Futures	2149.0	-9.0
Eurostoxx Index	340.6	-5.0
Oil (WTI)	45.0	0.5
US dollar index	86.4	-0.2
10 Year Govt Bond Yield	1.60%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA	103.3
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA	104.2
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage	3.49

Markets are lower this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down

Home prices rose 0.5% MOM and are up 5.8% YOY, according to the FHFA House Price Index. Home price appreciation is the highest in the West and Mountain states, while the Northeast and Middle Atlantic are bringing up the rear. 

Existing Home Sales fell 0.9% in August as tight inventory depressed transactions. The median home price was just over $240,000 which was a 5.1% YOY increase. Housing inventory was down to just over 2 million homes, which is a 4.6 month supply. First time homebuyers accounted for 31% of sales. Strong job growth and low mortgage rates are pumping up demand, but builders remain reticent.

The Index of Leading Economic Indicators fell 0.2% last month, lower than expectations.

New Home Sales came in at an annualized rate of 609k, a little better than expected, but below last month's 659k pace. The median sales price of new houses sold in August 2016 was $284,000; the average sales price was $353,600. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August was 235,000. This represents a supply of 4.6 months at the current sales rate.

Central Banks are dumping Treasuries, which is putting pressure on bonds, even thought the latest economic data is on the weak side. US investors (especially bond funds) are on the other side of the trade. This is also a warning to investors to take a look at their bond funds and determine how much interest rate risk they are bearing.

Minneapolis Fed Head Neel Kashkari did a Twitter Q&A about monetary policy. He is worried more about deflation than inflation and doesn't see a bubble in housing.

Tonight, candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will have their first debate. The latest poll numbers show a dead heat, and a Trump lead when third party candidates are included. Note that the debate will be up against Monday night football, so all the post-debate polls will skew female which will be more favorable for Hillary than Trump. 

Morning Report: Markets rally on the Fed

Vital Statistics:

	Last	Change
S&P Futures	2163.0	7.0
Eurostoxx Index	347.6	5.0
Oil (WTI)	46.0	0.7
US dollar index	86.1	-0.2
10 Year Govt Bond Yield	1.65%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA	103.3
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA	104.2
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage	3.56

Markets are higher after the Fed maintained interest rates yesterday. Bonds and MBS are up.

The Fed kept interest rates unchanged yesterday, and released new economic projections. Most members expect the Fed to hike another 25 basis points this year according to the dot plot. They tweaked their economic projections slightly, taking down their GDP forecast for 2016 and inching up their unemployment forecast. Longer term projections were unchanged. Three members dissented, wanting to hike rates in September. 

In her press conference, Janet Yellen was careful to say the Fed was confident in the economy: "Our decision does not reflect a lack of confidence in the economy, Conditions in the labor market have strengthened and we expect that to continue, and while inflation remains low we expect it to rise to our 2 percent objective over time." She also guided that the default path was for one more rate hike this year, assuming no major changes in the economy: "I would expect to see (a rate increase this year) if we continue on the current course of labor market improvement, and there are no major risks that develop and we stay on the current course."

Bonds rallied on the Fed's announcement, and that is carrying over this morning as markets rally worldwide. 

FWIW, Bill Gross isn't buying that the Fed is "data dependent." He thinks they are "market dependent." 

In other economic news this morning, initial Jobless Claims fell to 252k last week. 

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -.55 last month, which confirms the slowdown we have seen in other indicators. The 3 month moving average is slightly negative, which means the economy is growing, albeit below trend. 

Delinquencies and foreclosures continued to fall in August, according to Black Knight Financial Services. The rally in bonds from Brexit caused prepayments to spike, with prepayment speeds hitting a 3 year high. 4.24% of all homes are delinquent and just over 1% are in foreclosure. 

Morning Report: Fed Day

Vital Statistics:

	Last	Change
S&P Futures	2137.0	7.0
Eurostoxx Index	342.9	2.0
Oil (WTI)	44.8	0.8
US dollar index	86.7	-0.2
10 Year Govt Bond Yield	1.69%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA	103.3
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA	104.2
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage	3.56

Stocks are up this morning after stocks rallied overnight on moves from the Bank of Japan. Bonds and MBS are flat.

The Japanese Central Bank is embarking on a new version of QE: attempting to hold the yield of the 10 year bond precisely at 0%. The BOJ holds something like 40% of all Japanese Government bonds, and between the other players that must hold Japanese government bonds (banks for capital and insurance companies) the central bank has essentially cornered the market in bonds, and can therefore set just about any price it wants. 

The FOMC decision will be out around 2:00 pm today. Bonds could get volatile around then so be careful if you have locks to deal with. The Fed Funds futures have a low 20% chance of a rate hike at today's meeting. Note that this meeting will introduce new economic forecasts and rate forecasts, so there will be a lot that can move markets. Janet Yellen will have a press conference at 2:30 PM EST following the decision. 

Mortgage applications fell 7.3% last week as purchases fell 7% and refis fell 8%. 

Housing starts and building permits fell last week due to lousy weather in the South. Housing starts came in at a 1.14 million annual rate. Single family starts rose while multi-fam (which is much more volatile than SFR) fell. 

KB Home and Lennar both reported earnings that beat estimates, although the orders numbers disappointed. Gross margins fell as land prices increased. Lennar reported weakness in some Texas markets due to the slowdown in the energy patch. 

Housing inventory fell for the fifth straight quarter, according to Trulia. Affordability continues to fall as the percentage of income to buy a home continues to rise. Starter homes now require 38.5% of the typical borrower's income, up from 36.8% in the third quarter last year. Historically, 36% has been a level where the GSEs begin to get concerned. Starter homes represent 23% of the available inventory, which is out of whack with the historical average of about 40%. The high end represents the majority of the inventory out there (which is where we are starting to see softness in pricing). We are starting to see increases in inventory in some of the West Coast markets where supply is the tightest, especially places like San Francisco and San Diego. 

Wells Fargo CEO Joe Stumpf went to Washington yesterday and got scolded by the usual suspects. Although the area affected was retail lending and not mortgages, I am sure the effects will be felt in mortgage banking as well. 

As banks get hammered and tied up in red tape, house flippers who need money fast are turning to crowdfunders. One flipper raised $1 million in 12 hours on crowdfunding sites RealtyShares, LendingHome, PeerStreet and Patch of Land. He is paying 14% for 2.5 year money. You are even seeing builders use this market as banks back away. 

Morning Report: inflation comes in hotter than expected

Vital Statistics:

	Last	Change
S&P Futures	2134.0	-4.0
Eurostoxx Index	338.7	0.3
Oil (WTI)	42.9	-1.0
US dollar index	87.0	0.5
10 Year Govt Bond Yield	1.69%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA	103.3
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA	104.2
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage	3.54

Stocks are lower this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up.

Slow news day.

Inflation at the consumer level came in a little hotter than expected, with the consumer price index rising 0.2% MOM and 1.1% YOY. Ex-food and energy, it rose 0.3% and is up 2.3% YOY. This should not have much (if any) effect on probabilities for a Sep rate hike. 

The Feds suggested a $14 billion fine for Deutsche Bank for bubble-era mortgage backed securities sins. Deutsche has no intention for settling anywhere near that number. The stock is down 7.2% in Frankfurt.

Yesterday, Donald Trump discussed taxes and growth. He is proposing to simplify the individual tax code, and to cut corporate taxes to closer to our competitors. He is also promising to tame the regulatory state, and between the tax cuts and regulatory relief he is forecasting GDP to grow at 3.5% versus our sub 2% current growth. Of course the latest scandal from Wells Fargo makes regulatory relief a more difficult argument to make. 

The MR will be spotty next week as I will be on jury duty..

Morning Report: Median incomes rise

Vital Statistics:

	Last	Change
S&P Futures	2117.0	3.0
Eurostoxx Index	338.7	0.3
Oil (WTI)	43.8	0.2
US dollar index	86.7	0.0
10 Year Govt Bond Yield	1.71%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA	103.3
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA	104.2
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage	3.54

Markets are up as the Bank of England maintained policy. Bonds and MBS are down.

Mortgage applications rose 4.2% last week as purchases rose 9% and refis rose 2%. The increase was driven due to a favorable comparison to the Labor Day shortened week before. 

Initial Jobless Claims came in at 260k last week. Consumer comfort slipped. 

Inflation remains tough to find at the wholesale level, according to the Producer Price Index. The PPI was flat month over month and year over year. Ex-food and energy it rose 0.1% last month and is up 1% YOY. The Fed prefers to use the Personal Consumption Expenditure index versus the CPI and PPI, but the Fed's measures are in the ballpark with CPI / PPI. Neither indicator is suggesting the Fed has to hike in order to stop inflation. 

Retail Sales fell 0.3% in August. Less autos and gas they fell 0.1%. While the latest GDP numbers show an increase in consumption, you aren't seeing that in these numbers. Online shopping explains it to some extent, however August and September are the back to school shopping season, which is usually a good predictor for the holidays. 

Manufacturing continues to disappoint, as industrial and manufacturing production fell 0.4% in August. Capacity Utilization slipped from 75.9% to 75.5%. Meanwhile, the Philly Fed Business Outlook rose to 12.8 while the Empire State improved to -2. July's improvement in manufacturing looks more like a blip than a trend reversal. 

Technical analysis shows the latest rout in the bond markets resembles the taper tantrum of 2013. The long bond trade simply got too easy and too crowded. Note that mortgage rates lagged the move up in 2013. The 10 year bond yield bottomed in the spring and the Bankrate mortgage rate didn't bottom until fall. This time, mortgage rates are increasing with the bond yields, but at a much slower pace. 

Median incomes rose 5.2% in 2015, according to the Census Bureau. This is a surprising number that doesn't really comport with what we have been seeing out of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This number puts the median house price to median income ratio at 3.9x which is higher than the historical range of 3.2-3.6x. Low interest rates complicate the comparison, however. 

Morning Report: Small Business optimism falls

Vital Statistics:

	Last	Change
S&P Futures	2135.0	-17.0
Eurostoxx Index	314.7	-0.6
Oil (WTI)	45.1	-1.2
US dollar index	86.5	0.3
10 Year Govt Bond Yield	1.66%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA	103.3
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA	104.2
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage	3.54

Markets are lower this morning as overseas stocks remain weak. Bonds and MBS are flat

Small Business confidence slipped in September according to the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. Small business earnings are taking a hit as labor costs increase and sales growth remains muted. Small Businesses added .24 workers on average, which is the 12th monthly increase in a row and the highest reading this year. That said, job openings are falling, so we could be losing some momentum here in the future. Planned capital expenditures (another big measure of confidence) fell. Overall, as NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg says, "Small business cannot get out of second gear." Sentiment still remains lower than pre-recession levels and Washington remains the first and second biggest issues facing business. 

Completed Foreclosures fell 3.9% MOM and 16.5% YOY, according to CoreLogic. Foreclosure inventory is down 29% to about 355,000 homes or 0.9% of all homes with a mortgage. The Northeast (especially NY and NJ) continue to have the highest level of foreclosure inventory. 

Yesterday, stock rallied after Lael Brainard called for prudence in raising interest rates. The Fed now enters their quiet period until the FOMC decision next week. The Fed Funds futures are assigning a 20% probability of a rate hike in September and a 60% probability of a rate hike by December. Meanwhile, JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon says "just hike rates, already"

The House is expected to pass a reform of Dodd Frank today. The Senate has their own bill that has yet to be introduced. Obama will undoubtedly veto any change, but it will be on the table for the next administration. The biggest part will be providing regulatory relief to smaller entities, and bringing the CFPB under Congressional oversight. 

Morning Report: Global bond sell-off continues

Vital Statistics:

	Last	Change
S&P Futures	2111.5	-5.0
Eurostoxx Index	340.7	-5.0
Oil (WTI)	44.9	-1.0
US dollar index	86.5	0.3
10 Year Govt Bond Yield	1.68%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA	103.3
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA	104.2
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage	3.48

Stocks are weaker this morning as global markets continue the sell-off that began on Friday. Bonds and MBS are lower.

Dennis Lockhart is speaking this morning, and said that it is time to have a serious discussion about raising rates. Neel Kashkari and Lael Brainard will be speaking later on today. That should be the end of Fed-speak until the FOMC meeting later this month. Fed Funds futures are now signalling a 60% chance of a rate hike by the end of the year. 

So far it appears that mortgage rates are lagging the move up in sovereign yields. The same thing happened after the taper tantrum in 2013. The 10 year bottomed in spring, while mortgage rates kept falling and didn't start rising until fall. 

Donald Trump went after Janet Yellen and monetary policy, accusing the Fed of being political to protect Obama's legacy. FWIW, it seems like there is a change in the consensus over ZIRP and whether it is causing more problems than it is solving. Not too long ago, such comments would have been treated with "How dare you!" kvetching by the press. 

Certainly you are seeing the change in consensus overseas, as foreign bond markets have been selling off over the past week, with the German Bund now trading with a positive yield. Even the Japanese bond market is heading lower. Deutsche Bank lays out the scenarios going forward. 

The chart below (courtesy of Deutsche Bank) looks at overvaluation / undervaluation of various asset classes over a two centuries. Bonds are extremely overvalued (we know that already), but ZIRP has also caused overvaluation in stocks and real estate, which should unwind as rates start going up. Best case scenario: a situation like the post WWII era where rates gradually crept up over the course of a few decades. Of course currencies were linked to gold back then.. Today, we are on the PhD standard where the value of paper is based on the relative value of other paper. 

It is almost as if global bond markets jumped the shark last week when Sanofi and Henkel were able to issue corporate debt at negative yields. 

Morning Report: Job openings compared to unemployed back to pre-recession levels

Vital Statistics:

	Last	Change
S&P Futures	2159.0	-12.0
Eurostoxx Index	347.1	-2.0
Oil (WTI)	46.7	-0.9
US dollar index	86.4	0.3
10 Year Govt Bond Yield	1.65%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA	103.3
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA	104.2
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage	3.52

Stocks are lower as emerging markets sell off. Bonds and MBS are down.

Risk-off feel today, but bonds aren't rallying. What is going on? Global bond yields are increasing, especially in Japan where the BOJ is taking a breather purchasing bonds. The German Bund is down as well. Some strategists are beginning to sense that the Japanese bond market could be headed lower. So, despite weak US economic data, a global bond sell-off will affect US Treasuries as well. 

Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren is sounding hawkish, which is not his natural home. His argument is that a campaign of slow, steady rate hikes will prolong the expansion more than waiting and then having to move more aggressively. Of course it all comes down to wage growth, which decelerated in the last jobs report.

Barry Ritholz took a look at the the lack of wage growth and comes up with an interesting chart: the ratio of the unemployed to the number of job openings. This ratio is back down to pre-crisis levels. While we have yet to see much evidence of increased turnover in the quits rate, it does appear at least anecdotally that we are seeing more turnover. Certainly the stage is set for further wage inflation.

Mortgage credit tightened slightly in August, according to the MBA. Apparently, one investor is exiting the correspondent business and that accounted for the tightening. Credit is easing in the jumbo space however. 

Morning Report: Consumers getting more constructive on the economy

Vital Statistics:

	Last	Change
S&P Futures	2186.5	2.0
Eurostoxx Index	350.5	1.0
Oil (WTI)	46.4	0.9
US dollar index	85.7	-0.1
10 Year Govt Bond Yield	1.54%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA	103.3
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA	104.2
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage	3.52

Stocks are higher after the ECB left rates unchanged. Bonds and MBS are flat.

Initial Jobless Claims came in at 259k, We have been below 300k (an important level) for 80 weeks now. 

Consumer comfort increased to 44 last week, according to Bloomberg.

Wage inflation is evident only in certain pockets of the labor economy - tech workers, engineers, construction, and remains flattish in the less skilled sectors. Elsewhere, hours are being cut and we are seeing full-timers being relegated to part-time. Until we start seeing broad-based wage inflation, the Fed is going to move slow. Note there is a disconnect between the Fed heads and what the markets are saying regarding near-term rate hikes. The markets aren't buying the hawkish language. 

Consumers are getting somewhat more constructive on the economy, according to Fannie Mae. The number of people who think the economy is on the right track improved to 38% and the number of people who think the economy is on the wrong track fell to 52%. Given the weak data recently that could be a temporary blip.

Morning Report: European companies get paid to borrow

Vital Statistics:

	Last	Change
S&P Futures	2183.0	-2.0
Eurostoxx Index	350.1	0.7
Oil (WTI)	44.9	0.1
US dollar index	85.7	0.1
10 Year Govt Bond Yield	1.52%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA	103.3
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA	104.2
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage	3.5

Markets are flattish on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up small.

Mortgage Applications rose 1% last week as purchases and refis rose the same amount.

Job openings hit a record 5.9 million in July, according to the JOLTS data. The quits rate, which is the best indicator of economic strength inched up to 2.1% which was the typical level pre-recession. Note the JOLTS data is older than the more recent employment data, however it continues to indicate either strength in the labor market, or a mismatch of skills. Job openings in construction are about the same level as the go-go years of 2005 - 2007. 

Same store sales increased 0.8% last month, which was the strongest showing since May. This is the back-to-school shopping season, which is the second most important period for retailers. 

There is no doubt that the latest economic data has pointed towards a deceleration of growth. The ISM report from yesterday was the worst in 6 years. Still some strategists see the chance of a September move - Goldman's Jan Hatzius just took down his probability of a Sep hike from 55% to 40% (still pretty high). Given the non-existent inflationary picture, it is hard to make a case that the Fed needs to hike rates now.

Second quarter originations were the highest since 2013, right before the "taper tantrum" killed the refi market, according to Black Knight Financial Services. Total first lien originations were 512 billion, of which 58% were refis. 

Distressed sales are falling as a percent of home sales, and the discounts appear to be narrowing slightly. The biggest discounts are still in the judicial states where foreclosures sit and depreciate during the elongated timelines. Compare New York's 40% with Texas's 14%. 

Aside from raising the Fed Funds rate, the next shoe to drop with the Fed will be dealing with the assets it purchased during quantitative easing. Pre-2008, the Fed's balance sheet stood at something like $800 billion in assets. Today, it is about $4.5 trillion. The Fed intends to eventually return its balance sheet to pre-2008 levels. Ben Bernanke argues that the Fed should maintain its balance sheet at current levels for the long term. 

File under "things that will astonish people some day:" In Europe, you are starting to see negative yields in the corporate bond sector. Yesterday, Germany's Henkel and French pharma giant Sanofi sold 1.5 billion euros of 0% corporate bonds above par. Astonishing that people would pay to take credit risk and interest rate risk, but there you go.  With the ECB buying corporate bonds as well as sovereigns maybe the thought is that they will flip them to the ECB a couple of basis points higher? I don't know. IMO, this is the equivalent of buying eToys at 40x revenues of iVillage at 2x pageviews in the hopes that the daytraders will ramp them so you can exit.

Morning Report: Jobs report disappointing

Vital Statistics:

	Last	Change
S&P Futures	2180.0	2.0
Eurostoxx Index	351.0	0.3
Oil (WTI)	44.2	-0.2
US dollar index	86.5	-0.2
10 Year Govt Bond Yield	1.59%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA	103.3
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA	104.2
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage	3.5

Markets are slightly higher this morning on no major news. Bonds and MBS are flat.

Jobs report data dump:

• Nonfarm payrolls + 151k vs 175k expected
• Unemployment rate 4.9% vs 4.8% expected
• Labor force participation rate 62.8% flat
• Average hourly earnings +0.1% vs. 0.2% expected
• Average weekly hours 34.3 versus 34.5 expected

Overall, not a report that should move the needle for the Fed, especially with respect to the September meeting. Bonds initially rallied on the report, but sold off during the rest of the day. The key numbers (the disappointing hourly earnings and average weekly hours) point to the Fed standing pat in September.

The ISM Non-Manufacturing missed expectations by a country mile, falling to 51.4 versus expectations of 55. Growth is still positive (since the number is above 50), but growth took a big step back. 

The Labor Market Conditions Index slipped to -0.7 in August. 

Lack of construction workers are a drag on housing, according to Freddie Mac. About 30% of the construction workers from 10 years ago found jobs in other fields. There are about 200,000 unfilled construction jobs in the US at the moment, and the ratio of job openings to hiring is the highest since 2007. The number of open jobs has increased 81% over the past two years. 

Home prices rose 6% YOY in July, according to CoreLogic. Home price appreciation continues its torrid pace out West, while the Northeast and Midwest lag. We are beginning to see overvalued markets especially out west. Here is a map of the overvalued (red) and undervalued (green) markets:

Delinquencies ticked up in July, according to the Black Knight Financial Services Mortgage Monitor. Part of that was technical, with the month ending on a Sunday. Foreclosures and foreclosure inventory continue to work their way downwards.

What are the markets thinking about the Hillary versus Trump match up? While the US has some betting markets, the UK has a very liquid market in betting. You can track the markets here, at Sporting Index. The current markets are here:

The original bets pre-dated the conventions, so the payout is 25 if the person gets the party nomination and 50 if they win. Based on these markets the implied probability of the election is 72% Clinton, 28% Trump. FWIW, in the US-based PredictIt markets, Trump costs 37 cents and Hillary costs 64 cents...